Trump Gets Great News From Three Different Election Predictors

Please share:

by Sheri Urban

According to Steven Rattner, former counselor to the Treasury secretary for the Obama Administration, President Trump’s chances of re-election based on three different models is very strong.

Rattner’s article which was published in the New York Times, gathers three different models that summarize President Trump’s performance and how it would translate to the 2020 election.

The first and best model that was cited was from Ray Fair who is a professor at Yale.

Check out what Rattner had to say:

[Fair] found that the growth rates of gross domestic product and inflation have been the two most important economic predictors — but he also found that incumbency was also an important determinant of presidential election outcomes.

How well has Professor Fair’s model worked?

In short, while not perfect, the Fair model has done remarkably well. In 2008, it predicted that Barack Obama would receive 53.1 percent of the popular vote; his share actually totaled 53.7 percent. In 2012, when Mr. Obama was running for re-election, its final estimate was a vote share of 51.8 percent, just two-tenths of one percent less than what the incumbent president received. (For Mr. Obama in 2012, the power of incumbency helped offset a still-recovering economy.)

Rattner goes on to talk about the results of the 2016 election:

When the 2016 election rolled round, a surprising result emerged. According to the model, Donald Trump should have received 54.1 percent of the vote; in actuality he received 48.8 percent. I’m quite confident that the gap was a function of the generally unfavorable rankings on Mr. Trump’s personal qualities. In other words, a more “normal” Republican would likely have won the popular vote by a substantial margin (instead of losing it by three million votes).

A good part of Mr. Trump’s edge in 2016 was the incumbency factor — after eight years of a Democratic president, voters would ordinarily have wanted a Republican. (Since 1952, only one man has become president following eight years of a president of the same party.) In 2020, incumbency will be a tailwind for Mr. Trump as the vast majority of presidents are chosen for a second term.

In its present state, the economy will also be helpful to the president. All told, Mr. Trump’s vote share would ordinarily be as high as 56.1 percent. But that’s before factoring in his personality. As recent polls show, if the election were today, he would lose to most of the Democratic hopefuls by a substantial margin; in the case of Joe Biden, by nearly eight percentage points.

Rattner goes on to discuss how polls and models can be different. For example, many of the polls say that Biden will be elected in 2020 however almost all of the models say that Trump will be re-elected. Rattner makes it clear that the models are the more accurate of the two.

Rattner also talks about the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics Mark Zandi and Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics:

It’s worth noting that the Fair model is hardly alone in its forecast. Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, has looked at 12 models, and Mr. Trump wins in all of them. Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics has reached the same conclusion in his examination of the Electoral College.

So the question for 2020 may well be whether Mr. Trump can overcome the majority of voters’ poor perception of him and use a good economy and incumbency to win re-election.

What are your thoughts? Let us know in the comments below!

36 thoughts on “Trump Gets Great News From Three Different Election Predictors

  1. I was able to find good info from your blog articles.

  2. Have you ever considered about adding a little bit more than just your articles?

    I mean, what you say is important and all. However think
    of if you added some great photos or video clips
    to give your posts more, “pop”! Your content is excellent but with images andd clips, this site
    could definitely be onee of the greatest in its field.
    Fantastic blog!

  3. I wanted to thank you for this good read!! I certainly enjoyed every little bit
    of it. I have you saved as a favorite to check out new things you post…

  4. I could not refrain from commenting. Well written!

  5. Pretty! This has been a really wonderful article. Many thanks
    for providing this info.

  6. I think this is among the most significant information for me.
    And i’m glad reading your article. Buut want to remark on some general things,
    The web site style is ideal, the articles is really
    great : D. Good job, cheers

  7. It’s amazing in favor of me to have a web site, which is beneficial in support of
    my know-how. thanks admin

  8. Howdy I am so delighted I found your website, I really found you by error,
    while I was looking on Digg for something else, Anyways I am here now and would just like to say cheers for a remarkable post and a
    all round exciting blog (I also love the theme/design),
    I don’t have time to browse it all at the moment but I have bookmarked
    it and also added in your RSS feeds, so when I have time I will be back
    to read a lot more, Please do keep up the superb work.

  9. What’s Taking place i’m new to this, I stumbled upon this I’ve found It positively helpful
    and it has aided me out loads. I’m hoping to give a contribution & help other users like its aided me.
    Good job.

  10. An intriguing discussion is worth comment. I do believe that you
    need to publish more about this issue, it may not be a taboo matter
    but usually people don’t discuss such subjects. To the next!
    Kind regards!!

  11. Its not my first time to pay a visit this website, i am browsing this
    web page dailly and get pleasant facts from here all the time.

  12. I blog frequently and I seriously appreciate your information. This article
    has truly peaked my interest. I am going to book mark your blog and keep checking for new details about
    once per week. I opted in for your RSS feed as well.

  13. Have you ever thought about including a little bit more than just your articles?

    I mean, what you say is fundamental and all. But think about if you added some great images
    or videos to give your posts more, “pop”! Your content is excellent but with images and
    clips, this blog could definitely be one of the very best in its niche.
    Amazing blog!

  14. Hi, I wish for to subscribe for this weblog to take latest updates, therefore where can i do it please help out.

  15. cialis buy australia https://canadianpharmacystorm.com buy viagra cheap in canada

  16. It’s a pity you don’t have a donate button! I’d definitely donate to
    this fantastic blog! I guess for now i’ll settle for bookmarking and adding your RSS
    feed to my Google account. I look forward to brand new updates
    and will share this site with my Facebook group. Talk soon!

  17. where can i buy viagra in manila http://tadmedz.com safest place to buy cialis

  18. i bookmared your site

  19. i bookmared your site

  20. cialis for sale in manila https://edpillsphrm.com cheap levitra professional oo

  21. viagra discount

    viagra canada

  22. Your way off explaining the whole thing in this piece off writing iis
    actually fastidious, every one bbe capable of
    effortlessly know it, Thanks a lot.

    Look at my page; IPL hair removal diy

  23. It’s going to be finish of mine day, but before ending I am
    reading this impressive paragraph tto improve my knowledge.

    Feel free to visit my web site … uvv lamps (https://www.londonchinese.ca)

  24. sildenafil 20 mg vs viagra: generic viagra buy cheap levitra no prescription

  25. Good site you have got here.. It’s difficult to find good quality writing like yours these days.
    I seriously appreciate people likoe you! Take care!!

    Feeel free to surf to my web-site: uvv light sterilization [stboy.net]

  26. viagra without doctor prescription: viagra without a doctor prescription 150 mg cheap viagra and levitra

  27. I am not sure where you’re getting your info, but good topic.
    I needs too spend some time learning more oor understanding more.
    Thanks for great information I was looking for his
    information for my mission.

    My web site – uv bulbs – http://www.temeculavalleybreweries.com,

  28. canadian pharmacy online

    online pharmacy

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *